2020 NY Mets Projections
Hello MSBL Sports News readers,
Back in mid-March, I was working on an article that showed and discussed my New York Mets projections for the 2020 season. I spent a few weeks crunching the numbers and using my predictive abilities to finalize what I thought the 2020 Mets season would become.
But then came the lockdowns, the suspension of spring training and I ended up putting the article on hold. What I have decided to do is to take those previous projections, make some modifications, and re-calculate the projections for the highly anticipated 60 games season.
Lets start by first doing some comparison. Here where my initial projections back in February when the 162 game season was still in play (sorted by OPS):
Name GP AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG OPS
Jeff McNeil 149 563 102 184 37 7 21 104 14 .327 .399 .529 .929
Pete Alonso 153 553 94 157 31 1 38 114 3 .284 .367 .550 .917
Dom Smith 73 93 13 26 7 0 4 18 2 .280 .417 .484 .901
Brandon Nimmo 138 455 111 123 29 5 16 62 19 .270 .418 .462 .879
Michael Conforto 140 557 93 153 33 2 26 85 8 .275 .370 .481 .851
J.D. Davis 143 536 77 152 33 2 23 84 7 .284 .362 .481 .843
Robinson Cano 132 482 63 133 25 2 17 63 5 .276 .348 .442 .790
Wilson Ramos 112 434 45 118 22 0 16 63 0 .272 .328 .433 .761
Tomas Nido 54 134 21 32 8 0 6 22 0 .239 .315 .433 .748
Amed Rosario 146 547 75 148 24 4 17 69 17 .271 .323 .422 .745
Jed Lowrie 83 257 33 73 13 1 5 32 2 .284 .343 .401 .744
Jack Marisnick 94 235 33 55 14 2 8 21 8 .234 .323 .413 .736
Rene Rivera 38 85 11 20 4 0 4 12 0 .235 .301 .424 .725
Luis Guillome 66 78 13 18 4 1 1 9 1 .231 .333 .346 .679
Yoenis Cespedes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000
Name GP GS INN H W L R ER SO BB CG SHO ERA SV WHIP
Jacob deGrom 33 33 205 144 16 6 61 54 261 44 2 2 2.37 0 0.917
Seth Lugo 46 5 96 88 9 4 33 28 106 31 0 0 2.63 0 1.240
Dellin Bentances 66 0 69 43 0 4 26 22 89 43 0 0 2.87 14 1.246
Edwin Diaz 57 0 66 48 2 3 28 23 94 24 0 0 3.14 22 1.091
Noah Syndergaard 33 33 207 172 13 9 83 73 222 54 2 1 3.35 0 1.092
Bill Brach 53 0 54 52 1 3 25 21 33 18 0 0 3.50 1 1.296
Steven Matz 38 8 104 97 8 7 47 41 92 33 0 0 3.55 4 1.250
Justin Wilson 49 0 55 57 3 2 25 23 48 19 0 0 3.76 2 1.382
Michael Wacha 30 20 146 152 9 7 72 63 127 52 0 0 3.88 0 1.397
Marcus Stroman 32 32 194 187 13 11 92 84 168 68 1 0 3.90 0 1.314
Rick Porcello 32 32 195 204 14 10 96 90 146 67 2 0 4.15 0 1.390
Robert Gsellman 37 0 47 53 2 4 24 22 36 18 0 0 4.21 0 1.511
Jeurys Familia 40 0 42 54 0 2 23 22 56 22 0 0 4.71 0 1.810
I have initially projected the Mets to go 90 and 72. Not sure if that was going to be enough wins to capture the NL East crown, but the offense was projecting to be extremely balanced and the pitching was projected to perform well, if not better than the offense. Here are some highlights:
- Projected that Pete Alonso will have a sophomore slump, but is still productive with 114 rbi and .917 OPS.
- Projected that Jeff McNeil takes the next step in his evolution and is the best overall hitter.
- Projected that guys like Robinson Cano, Wilson Ramos and Brandon Nimmo provide solid support for the middle of the order batters.
- Projected the overall team OPS would be .827, the best in teams history.
- Projected that Jacob deGrom finally gets some run support and goes 16-6 / 2.37 / 0.917.
- Projected that Edwin Diaz has a nice bounce back with a solid 3.14 / 1.091 / 22 saves.
- Projected that Dellin Betances will provide solid 8th and 9th inning support to nicely complement Edwin Diaz.
- Projected a team ERA of 3.47 and team WHIP of 1.246, which would be top 5 in the NL.
Over the past four months, some things have changed and now need to re-calculate the 2020 projections due to the following:
- Yoenis Cespedes looking ready to play.
- The Designated Hitter to be used during the 2020 National League season.
- Jed Lowrie not looking ready for opening day with his mysterious injury.
- Noah Syndergaard getting injured and having to miss the entire 2020 season.
- The addition of Jared Hughes to the bullpen.
Here are the updated projections:
Name GP AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG OPS
Jeff McNeil 55 208 38 68 14 3 8 38 5 .327 .399 .529 .929
Pete Alonso 57 206 35 58 12 0 15 42 3 .284 .367 .550 .917
Dom Smith 33 93 13 26 7 0 4 18 2 .280 .417 .484 .901
Brandon Nimmo 51 168 41 45 11 2 6 23 8 .270 .418 .462 .879
Michael Conforto 57 207 35 57 12 1 10 32 3 .275 .370 .481 .851
J.D. Davis 53 199 29 56 13 0 9 31 2 .284 .362 .481 .843
Robinson Cano 49 179 23 49 9 1 6 23 2 .276 .348 .442 .790
Yoenis Cespedes 37 144 16 37 8 0 10 26 0 .256 .310 .463 .773
Wilson Ramos 41 159 16 43 8 0 6 23 0 .272 .328 .433 .761
Tomas Nido 27 67 11 16 4 0 3 11 0 .239 .315 .433 .748
Amed Rosario 54 202 28 55 9 2 6 26 8 .271 .323 .422 .745
Jack Marisnick 44 135 23 32 6 1 4 14 7 .234 .323 .413 .736
Rene Rivera 38 85 11 20 4 0 4 12 0 .235 .301 .424 .725
Luis Guillome 36 58 8 14 4 1 1 4 1 .231 .333 .346 .679
Jed Lowrie 33 67 10 14 5 1 2 10 2 .209 .299 .345 .644
Name GP GS INN H W L R ER SO BB CG SO ERA SV WHIP
Jacob deGrom 12 12 75 52 6 2 24 20 95 16 2 2 2.37 0 0.917
Seth Lugo 17 0 36 33 4 2 12 10 39 11 0 0 2.63 0 1.240
Dellin Bentances 24 0 25 16 0 1 9 8 32 16 0 0 2.87 5 1.246
Edwin Diaz 21 0 24 18 1 1 10 8 35 9 0 0 3.14 10 1.091
Jared Hughes 20 0 23 19 1 0 11 9 18 7 0 0 3.52 1 1.131
Bill Brach 20 0 21 20 0 2 13 8 15 9 0 0 3.43 1 1.380
Michael Wacha 12 12 71 68 6 3 31 28 65 26 0 0 3.55 0 1.366
Justin Wilson 18 0 20 22 2 0 12 8 19 9 0 0 3.60 2 1.550
Steven Matz 12 12 70 66 4 5 33 31 72 24 0 0 3.99 0 1.285
Marcus Stroman 12 12 70 65 5 4 35 32 59 30 1 0 4.11 0 1.357
Robert Gsellman 15 0 15 18 0 1 9 7 12 7 0 0 4.20 0 1.666
Rick Porcello 12 12 68 76 7 5 39 33 48 22 1 0 4.37 0 1.441
Jeurys Familia 20 0 16 20 0 2 9 8 22 12 0 0 4.50 0 2.000
With the 60 game season now in play, I do predict the Mets will go 32 wins and 28 loses. Once again I am not sure if that will be enough wins to make the playoffs. I do anticipate that the top four teams in the National League East will all be within a few games of each other and should lower the wins totals, giving the Mets better chance at winning the division and making the playoffs.